SSP demand scenarios

This work consists of combining the projections from our work with the Gravity Model to the current-day energy demand estimates from the MariTeam model. By integrating future trade and shipping flow projections with present energy consumption patterns, we create a more comprehensive outlook on how maritime energy demand may evolve.

Fleet energy demand growth

The stacked plot below illustrates the total energy demand when combined with sector-specific energy demand from the MariTEam model. This visualization provides insights into how different sectors contribute to overall energy consumption, highlighting variations across scenarios and assumptions. By integrating these sectoral demands, we can better understand the energy requirements and potential shifts in the maritime industry over time. Each SSP scenario presents a different pathway for ship types, while the RCP components affects mostly energy carriers (oil and gas tankers).

Country exporting patters

Below, we have compiled the total exports per country for each scenario index by the year 2025. These scenarios represent different trends depending on the underlying drivers and assumptions. In the SSP4 scenario, for example, there is a clearer distinction between the Global North and South. For more information and discussion, you can check the publication Kramel et al. (2024), “Advancing SSP-aligned scenarios of shipping toward 2050”.

Country patterns

Within this framework, we can also analyze country-specific patterns by examining the energy demand for exports, disaggregated by ship type across the different scenarios. This allows us to explore how national export strategies and fleet compositions influence future energy use and emissions, providing deeper insights into each country’s alignment with decarbonization pathways.

Commited emissions and the IMO 2050

Inspired by the work of Bullock et al. (2020), we take a look into the commited emissions of the current fleet. The stock model tracks the current fleet’s composition, age, and technological characteristics, allowing us to assess how much of future transport demand can be met with ships already in operation. This approach enables us to quantify the emissions that are effectively “committed” by the current fleet if no further interventions are made. Comparing these committed emissions with the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) target of net-zero emissions by 2050 reveals the scale of the decarbonization challenge and highlights where fleet renewal, retrofits, or operational changes are most urgently needed to align with long-term climate goals.

Author: Diogo Kramel
Model: Gravity model of trade
Repository: GitHub
Data Version: v1.0.0 | 2025-02-13
Latest Update: March 24, 2025
Contact: diogo.kramel@ntnu.no